Rapid Intensification Guidance AL042025 250806 12UTC Storm Located at : 39.70 59.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 33.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.70 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 55.9 61.6 61.4 61.1 58.8 47.7 43.4 42.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 70.0 57.9 55.5 35.0 22.3 15.9 15.5 13.5 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 66.0 18.0 55.0 41.0 39.0 50.0 57.0 10.0 N U N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 42.0 41.0 39.0 36.0 39.0 42.0 44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -4.0 -11.0 -10.0 -19.0 -15.0 -19.0 -20.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.78 AL042025 250806 12UTC Storm Located at : 39.70 59.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.