Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042025 250806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.90     57.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.4  61.6  65.4  60.3  53.0  42.2  42.1  35.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.9  55.5  35.0  19.1  21.7  21.2  14.7  13.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  41.0  44.0  48.0  22.0   9.0  61.0  34.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  39.0  39.0  35.0  37.0  39.0  45.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -8.0 -15.0 -12.0 -30.0 -20.0 -19.0 -11.0  F  F VF  F VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.62

 AL042025 250806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.90     57.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.