Rapid Intensification Guidance AL042025 250807 00UTC Storm Located at : 39.90 55.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 56.0 57.7 59.1 57.4 44.8 41.8 38.9 30.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.5 50.9 33.4 27.1 19.6 15.5 13.9 11.3 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 53.0 46.0 46.0 34.0 47.0 51.0 31.0 21.0 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 39.0 36.0 35.0 37.0 40.0 49.0 55.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -13.0 -3.0 -17.0 -12.0 -16.0 -22.0 -8.0 F VF N VF F VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.72 AL042025 250807 00UTC Storm Located at : 39.90 55.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.