Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042025 250807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.00     51.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        58.5  55.7  50.4  40.1  41.4  40.6  34.9  26.5 VU VU VU  U VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         28.4  17.3  17.3  14.6  10.5   5.6   6.3   6.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  49.0  56.0  25.0  40.0  15.0  30.0  19.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  35.0  37.0  39.0  45.0  51.0  54.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -15.0 -12.0 -18.0 -11.0 -13.0 -11.0  -8.0 VF VF  F VF  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.34

 AL042025 250807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.00     51.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.