Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250811 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     27.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  15.3  13.6  15.4  11.7  12.7  14.3  20.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   9.0  14.0  13.0   9.0  39.0  54.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         72.2  73.6  75.0  75.0  79.6  84.3  91.2  96.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  97.0  67.0  13.0  -1.0  -6.0 -19.0  27.0  N  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   0.0   5.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.9%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       11.4%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        4.9%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h       24.7%        0.9%       12.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        4.5%        3.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.68

 AL052025 250811 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     27.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.