Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     29.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  15.4  17.6  16.7  15.1  16.0  17.4  16.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  14.0  12.0   6.0  17.0  42.0  57.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         73.6  75.0  76.5  76.5  82.7  87.7  94.8 100.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  58.0  19.0  15.0 -22.0 -24.0 -13.0  24.0  N  N  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  52.0  50.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   1.0   4.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.4%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        5.8%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        2.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h       21.1%        0.5%       10.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        2.7%        2.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.78

 AL052025 250811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40     29.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.