Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250812 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 31.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.6 15.9 15.6 16.2 12.6 13.2 14.8 16.1 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 11.0 6.0 9.0 37.0 53.0 26.0 22.0 U U U U U N U U Potential [kt] 75.0 76.5 78.0 79.6 86.0 93.0 98.5 104.4 U U N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 57.0 42.0 17.0 -5.0 -9.0 6.0 16.0 19.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.9% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 5.5% 3.0% 55kt / 36h 0.4% 2.0% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 21.3% 0.8% 11.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 4.1% 3.7% 3.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.90 AL052025 250812 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 31.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.