Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     33.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  17.3  18.5  16.0  16.5  12.6  17.9  17.9  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   6.0   9.0  20.0  47.0  56.0  20.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.5  76.5  79.6  82.7  87.7  94.8 100.5 106.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  36.0  26.0   0.0 -14.0  -2.0  27.0  25.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.8%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h       15.6%        6.6%       11.1%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        1.1%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        2.8%        2.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.00

 AL052025 250812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     33.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.