Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     35.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  16.0  15.5  14.8  13.9  12.2  13.3  20.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0  10.0  20.0  31.0  48.0  24.0  22.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.0  84.6  87.7  92.7  98.0 103.5 109.4 115.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  24.0  -3.0  20.0 -25.0 -15.0  41.0  30.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  59.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h       14.8%        6.3%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%        0.6%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%        2.5%        3.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.18

 AL052025 250812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     35.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.