Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250813 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 39.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.60 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.6 13.4 16.0 17.8 16.6 15.5 16.3 18.9 F F F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 32.0 40.0 43.0 22.0 25.0 28.0 68.0 U U N N U U U N Potential [kt] 84.3 87.7 91.2 93.0 100.5 106.5 115.1 122.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 12.0 -10.0 13.0 26.0 33.0 44.0 44.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 58.0 58.0 59.0 57.0 58.0 57.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 -8.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.2% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.8% 4.9% 2.9% 55kt / 36h 0.8% 1.5% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 17.1% 7.0% 12.0% 70kt / 48h 7.0% 1.3% 4.1% 65kt / 72h 9.7% 5.1% 7.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.60 AL052025 250813 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 39.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.