Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     41.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  15.5  17.8  17.4  17.4  12.8  21.4  20.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  39.0  43.0  43.0  21.0  26.0  52.0  70.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         87.7  89.4  93.0  96.6 102.4 108.6 119.6 122.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0   6.0  -4.0  -2.0  12.0  43.0  52.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        6.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        2.1%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h       17.6%        7.4%       12.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.4%        2.0%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h       10.4%        6.6%        8.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.74

 AL052025 250813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     41.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.