Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     44.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  16.8  14.1  16.3   8.1  16.8  18.8  25.8  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  39.0  23.0  24.0  27.0  47.0  69.0  97.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]         88.0  93.5  95.5 101.5 103.6 112.3 117.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0 -18.0  -4.0   0.0  34.0  54.0  50.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  58.0  59.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -5.0  -7.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.6%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        6.5%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        3.0%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        2.3%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        2.1%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%       13.1%        8.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%        5.0%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h       22.7%        4.6%       13.6%
 70kt / 48h       10.4%        4.3%        7.3%
 65kt / 72h       17.1%       11.4%       14.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.16

 AL052025 250813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     44.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.