Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250814 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 45.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 39.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.50 F TC SIZE [%] 61.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 14.9 16.7 12.7 11.5 18.3 23.8 25.1 F F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 23.0 22.0 27.0 28.0 70.0 84.0 71.0 U U U U U N N N Potential [kt] 93.5 95.5 99.4 101.5 110.1 117.0 119.3 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -1.0 -8.0 5.0 28.0 32.0 57.0 -24.0 34.0 U U U U N N VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 57.0 59.0 58.0 59.0 57.0 58.0 59.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -8.0 -6.0 -7.0 N N N N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 1.5% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 1.6% 7.7% 4.6% 30kt / 24h 1.0% 3.9% 2.5% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 3.1% 2.0% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 2.6% 1.7% 45kt / 36h 3.7% 14.2% 8.9% 55kt / 36h 2.8% 5.6% 4.2% 55kt / 48h 21.1% 6.7% 13.9% 70kt / 48h 9.1% 4.8% 6.9% 65kt / 72h 17.4% 11.8% 14.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.32 AL052025 250814 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 45.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.