Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250814 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     47.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  18.6  16.2  10.4  14.6  21.5  22.7  21.1  F  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  25.0  30.0  28.0  56.0  68.0  95.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]         95.5 101.5 101.5 107.9 114.6 119.3 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  22.0  17.0   9.0  17.0  27.0  22.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.5%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        9.2%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        4.6%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        3.8%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        3.4%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       14.0%        9.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%        5.2%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h       20.0%        7.0%       13.5%
 70kt / 48h        8.2%        4.3%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h       20.2%       12.7%       16.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 AL052025 250814 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     47.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  18.6  16.2  10.4  14.6  21.5  22.7  21.1  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0  -6.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%