Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     48.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  15.6  11.1  11.6  16.5  22.2  20.4  24.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  36.0  30.0  29.0  65.0  81.0  75.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         96.5  98.6 102.9 105.1 112.0 114.3 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0   4.0   0.0   5.0  25.0 -17.0  19.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -8.0  -7.0  -7.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        4.2%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       22.0%       15.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%       13.6%       10.0%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       12.8%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        6.4%       12.0%        9.2%
 45kt / 36h       11.1%       28.0%       19.6%
 55kt / 36h        7.8%       13.4%       10.6%
 55kt / 48h       22.7%       13.1%       17.9%
 70kt / 48h        9.8%        8.2%        9.0%
 65kt / 72h       15.7%       15.7%       15.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 AL052025 250814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     48.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  15.6  11.1  11.6  16.5  22.2  20.4  24.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -8.0  -7.0  -7.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%