Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     50.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  11.4  14.5  15.8  20.1  24.4  23.4  22.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  29.0  31.0  55.0  62.0  94.0  48.0  90.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  N  F
 Potential [kt]         96.5 102.9 107.3 109.6 114.3 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  -3.0   3.0   2.0  -8.0  13.0  31.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -8.0  -7.0  -3.0   1.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        6.3%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       12.2%       29.2%       20.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.8%       19.7%       14.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%       19.3%       12.1%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%       18.0%       11.5%
 45kt / 36h       12.4%       30.8%       21.6%
 55kt / 36h        8.4%       15.6%       12.0%
 55kt / 48h       22.3%       14.3%       18.3%
 70kt / 48h        9.2%        8.3%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h       16.3%       16.3%       16.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 AL052025 250814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     50.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  11.4  14.5  15.8  20.1  24.4  23.4  22.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -8.0  -7.0  -3.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%