Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250815 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 51.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.5 14.4 14.9 16.7 25.6 20.2 23.6 17.9 F F F F N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 30.0 52.0 61.0 78.0 66.0 62.0 92.0 U U N N N N N F Potential [kt] 92.9 95.1 99.6 102.0 104.3 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 -10.0 -9.0 13.0 -17.0 6.0 30.0 39.0 U U U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 62.0 64.0 66.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -2.0 -9.0 -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 0.0 N N N F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 19.9% 19.2% 19.6% 25kt / 24h 33.3% 52.9% 43.1% 30kt / 24h 26.5% 48.5% 37.5% 35kt / 24h 23.0% 48.5% 35.8% 40kt / 24h 19.1% 47.6% 33.4% 45kt / 36h 25.9% 42.7% 34.3% 55kt / 36h 18.5% 26.1% 22.3% 55kt / 48h 22.2% 22.7% 22.5% 70kt / 48h 9.2% 12.2% 10.7% 65kt / 72h 12.2% 18.8% 15.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.02 AL052025 250815 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 51.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.5 14.4 14.9 16.7 25.6 20.2 23.6 17.9 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 62.0 64.0 66.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -2.0 -9.0 -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 0.0 N N N U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%