Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     53.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  16.3  16.0  19.0  24.9  21.1  23.4  18.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  93.0  48.0  95.0  61.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]         97.3  99.6 102.0 104.3 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   6.0  36.0  -9.0  10.0  31.0  45.0  23.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0  -3.0  -4.0   2.0   3.0  N  F  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.5%       18.8%       19.1%
 25kt / 24h       34.6%       52.0%       43.3%
 30kt / 24h       28.7%       47.2%       38.0%
 35kt / 24h       23.0%       47.2%       35.1%
 40kt / 24h       19.2%       47.2%       33.2%
 45kt / 36h       28.2%       39.4%       33.8%
 55kt / 36h       19.9%       22.3%       21.1%
 55kt / 48h       25.4%       22.3%       23.9%
 70kt / 48h       10.9%       10.9%       10.9%
 65kt / 72h       18.3%       19.0%       18.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 AL052025 250815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50     53.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  16.3  16.0  19.0  24.9  21.1  23.4  18.5  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0  -3.0  -4.0   2.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%