Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  15.3  18.1  20.8  17.5  22.9  20.1  25.4  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  65.0  70.0  93.0  58.0  82.0  63.0  70.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         94.6  97.0  99.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  33.0 -12.0 -13.0  17.0  18.0  40.0  47.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  59.0  61.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0   0.0  -9.0   0.0   7.0  10.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.5%       21.5%       20.5%
 25kt / 24h       38.2%       54.6%       46.4%
 30kt / 24h       30.5%       51.0%       40.7%
 35kt / 24h       26.7%       51.0%       38.8%
 40kt / 24h       15.7%       50.4%       33.0%
 45kt / 36h       31.1%       37.3%       34.2%
 55kt / 36h       20.2%       20.3%       20.2%
 55kt / 48h       26.2%       25.8%       26.0%
 70kt / 48h       11.2%        9.3%       10.2%
 65kt / 72h       21.0%       15.4%       18.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 AL052025 250815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  15.3  18.1  20.8  17.5  22.9  20.1  25.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  59.0  61.0  65.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0   0.0  -9.0   0.0   7.0  10.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%