Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250815 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     56.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  17.5  23.4  22.1  17.4  20.2  19.7  24.8  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  77.0  97.0  78.0  55.0  83.0  61.0  71.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         97.0  99.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0 -19.0 -17.0   0.0  20.0  43.0  18.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0   0.0  -6.0   0.0   7.0  10.0   5.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.3%       24.7%       23.0%
 25kt / 24h       41.3%       55.9%       48.6%
 30kt / 24h       32.8%       51.7%       42.3%
 35kt / 24h       31.5%       51.7%       41.6%
 40kt / 24h       11.7%       50.5%       31.1%
 45kt / 36h       31.3%       39.0%       35.1%
 55kt / 36h       20.3%       21.5%       20.9%
 55kt / 48h       33.7%       30.5%       32.1%
 70kt / 48h       16.3%       11.1%       13.7%
 65kt / 72h       23.8%       16.5%       20.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 AL052025 250815 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70     56.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  17.5  23.4  22.1  17.4  20.2  19.7  24.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0   0.0  -6.0   0.0   7.0  10.0   5.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%