Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     58.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  20.0  19.6  16.7  20.7  20.4  27.3  27.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  95.0  69.0  48.0  95.0  58.0  76.0  57.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         89.3  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0   9.0   6.0  15.0  40.0  37.0  52.0  31.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -7.0  -8.0   1.0   7.0  11.0  13.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       62.3%       44.2%       53.3%
 25kt / 24h       65.4%       76.8%       71.1%
 30kt / 24h       65.4%       76.8%       71.1%
 35kt / 24h       61.3%       76.8%       69.0%
 40kt / 24h       47.6%       76.8%       62.2%
 45kt / 36h       50.1%       50.3%       50.2%
 55kt / 36h       32.6%       31.4%       32.0%
 55kt / 48h       38.7%       38.5%       38.6%
 70kt / 48h       20.0%       13.6%       16.8%
 65kt / 72h       19.9%       12.8%       16.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 AL052025 250816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     58.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  20.0  19.6  16.7  20.7  20.4  27.3  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -7.0  -8.0   1.0   7.0  11.0  13.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%