Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250816 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60     60.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  18.1  17.9  18.0  22.3  23.5  31.7  24.5  N  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  63.0  49.0  72.0  77.0  62.0  75.0  58.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  27.0   7.0  34.0  39.0  34.0  63.0  43.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  62.0  64.0  68.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0   7.0  10.0  11.0  21.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       73.3%       44.0%       58.7%
 25kt / 24h       65.9%       64.9%       65.4%
 30kt / 24h       65.9%       64.9%       65.4%
 35kt / 24h       60.3%       64.9%       62.6%
 40kt / 24h       58.2%       64.9%       61.6%
 45kt / 36h       72.4%       47.4%       59.9%
 55kt / 36h       33.7%       30.4%       32.1%
 55kt / 48h       42.8%       16.7%       29.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 AL052025 250816 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60     60.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  18.1  17.9  18.0  22.3  23.5  31.7  24.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  62.0  64.0  68.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0   7.0  10.0  11.0  21.0  N  U  U  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%