Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250816 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    55.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  17.9  17.7  22.6  21.4  31.4  28.9  27.8  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  51.0  74.0  89.0  64.0  71.0  66.0  62.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  27.0  38.0  52.0   0.0  10.0  37.0  77.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -8.0   0.0   4.0   6.0   8.0  14.0  26.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.5%       14.2%       30.4%
 25kt / 24h       22.0%       15.3%       18.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 AL052025 250816 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60     62.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    55.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  17.9  17.7  22.6  21.4  31.4  28.9  27.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -8.0   0.0   4.0   6.0   8.0  14.0  26.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%