Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     63.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    50.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  18.7  22.4  23.5  23.6  33.0  28.2  27.6  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  77.0  88.0  86.0  60.0  79.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  16.0  25.0  50.0  25.0  35.0  41.0  78.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  67.0  67.0  70.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0   3.0   4.0   8.0  12.0  19.0  28.0  F  N  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.1%        0.0%       20.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 AL052025 250816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     63.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    50.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  18.7  22.4  23.5  23.6  33.0  28.2  27.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  67.0  67.0  70.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0   3.0   4.0   8.0  12.0  19.0  28.0  U  N  N  N  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%