Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250817 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     64.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  24.8  27.2  22.3  32.0  29.4  31.8  21.2  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  87.0  89.0  71.0  68.0  70.0  62.0  53.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  47.0  70.0   0.0  28.0  18.0  66.0  40.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   6.0   8.0  10.0  11.0  28.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        1.5%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        2.5%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        1.7%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 AL052025 250817 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     64.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  24.8  27.2  22.3  32.0  29.4  31.8  21.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   6.0   8.0  10.0  11.0  28.0  25.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        9.5%        4.8%