Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     65.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  26.5  21.0  23.7  30.4  23.9  25.9  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  86.0  69.0  60.0  72.0  65.0  45.0  31.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  69.0  24.0  16.0  46.0  18.0  59.0  24.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  57.0  58.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   6.0   8.0  17.0   8.0  20.0  26.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%        0.2%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.68

 AL052025 250817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30     65.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  26.5  21.0  23.7  30.4  23.9  25.9  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  57.0  58.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   6.0   8.0  17.0   8.0  20.0  26.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       17.1%        8.5%