Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250817 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     67.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  21.5  22.7  33.2  28.6  31.0  20.4  23.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  74.0  60.0  65.0  66.0  60.0  39.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  38.0  18.0  10.0  18.0  34.0  24.0  68.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  10.0   7.0  14.0  15.0  12.0  20.0  19.0  N  U  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.4%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        3.3%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.3%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h       18.6%        1.0%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 AL052025 250817 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     67.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  21.5  22.7  33.2  28.6  31.0  20.4  23.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  10.0   7.0  14.0  15.0  12.0  20.0  19.0  N  F  N  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       13.1%        6.6%