Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250817 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     68.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  26.1  34.4  30.4  27.6  28.1  21.8  20.9  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  60.0  68.0  71.0  66.0  39.0  30.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  45.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  11.0  12.0  18.0   6.0  94.0  25.0  87.0  N  U  U  U  U  F  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  56.0  61.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0  14.0  12.0  16.0  21.0  31.0  17.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.2%        4.5%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%        6.9%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%        4.8%        4.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%        4.1%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        2.4%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h       33.4%        3.2%       18.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 AL052025 250817 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50     68.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  26.1  34.4  30.4  27.6  28.1  21.8  20.9  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  56.0  61.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0  14.0  12.0  16.0  21.0  31.0  17.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       10.9%        5.5%