Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250818 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     68.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  34.8  34.0  28.1  31.8  21.9  22.4  21.6  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  70.0  70.0  64.0  55.0  37.0  22.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  52.0  38.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  17.0  20.0   2.0  42.0  70.0  36.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  13.0  11.0  13.0  29.0  18.0  24.0  12.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.3%        3.1%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%        5.3%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        3.6%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        3.1%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h       27.8%        2.4%       15.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 AL052025 250818 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     68.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  34.8  34.0  28.1  31.8  21.9  22.4  21.6  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  13.0  11.0  13.0  29.0  18.0  24.0  12.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       12.1%        6.1%