Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250818 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.50 69.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 73.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.7 37.3 30.5 27.8 26.0 18.4 23.3 31.7 U U N N N F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 67.0 68.0 64.0 66.0 40.0 33.0 22.0 15.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 47.0 33.6 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 40.0 32.0 45.0 100.0 34.0 83.0 118.0 N N N N F N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 62.0 64.0 65.0 69.0 68.0 71.0 66.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 18.0 13.0 14.0 23.0 25.0 32.0 23.0 U VU U U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.5% 2.2% 5.8% 25kt / 24h 4.9% 4.4% 4.6% 30kt / 24h 3.5% 2.8% 3.1% 35kt / 24h 2.7% 2.4% 2.6% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.90 AL052025 250818 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.50 69.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.7 37.3 30.5 27.8 26.0 18.4 23.3 31.7 F F N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 62.0 64.0 65.0 69.0 68.0 71.0 66.0 F N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 18.0 13.0 14.0 23.0 25.0 32.0 23.0 F VF F F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 18.3% 9.1%