Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250818 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.90 70.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.4 31.8 29.8 32.0 20.1 24.0 26.7 29.9 U U N U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 69.0 63.0 66.0 60.0 39.0 28.0 16.0 18.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 35.1 18.5 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 15.0 55.0 88.0 78.0 34.0 72.0 179.0 N U N F N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 63.0 65.0 70.0 71.0 74.0 70.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 7.0 10.0 11.0 24.0 33.0 32.0 11.0 U N U U VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.5% 3.3% 8.9% 25kt / 24h 7.5% 5.5% 6.5% 30kt / 24h 5.4% 3.5% 4.4% 35kt / 24h 4.5% 3.1% 3.8% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.94 AL052025 250818 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.90 70.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.4 31.8 29.8 32.0 20.1 24.0 26.7 29.9 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 63.0 65.0 70.0 71.0 74.0 70.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 7.0 10.0 11.0 24.0 33.0 32.0 11.0 F N F F VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 16.5% 8.3%