Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250818 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.60 71.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 75.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.6 28.6 31.7 24.7 21.3 23.9 28.7 31.2 N N U N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 64.0 66.0 58.0 44.0 36.0 22.0 14.0 19.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 42.0 32.9 20.5 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 28.0 59.0 136.0 29.0 83.0 117.0 153.0 U U N VF N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 61.0 64.0 66.0 67.0 72.0 71.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 7.0 16.0 18.0 32.0 30.0 21.0 11.0 N N U VU VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.1% 2.7% 6.4% 25kt / 24h 5.8% 4.9% 5.4% 30kt / 24h 3.9% 3.2% 3.5% 35kt / 24h 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.98 AL052025 250818 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.60 71.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.6 28.6 31.7 24.7 21.3 23.9 28.7 31.2 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 61.0 64.0 66.0 67.0 72.0 71.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 7.0 16.0 18.0 32.0 30.0 21.0 11.0 N N F VF VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 13.8% 6.9%