Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250819 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.00 71.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 82.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.5 38.4 28.7 19.2 25.6 20.4 25.0 34.2 N U N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 64.0 65.0 47.0 40.0 34.0 20.0 16.0 27.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 42.3 33.6 25.5 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 40.0 94.0 76.0 17.0 49.0 158.0 71.0 U N F N U N VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 66.0 69.0 71.0 74.0 71.0 59.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 26.0 18.0 12.0 24.0 24.0 15.0 2.0 N VU VU U VU VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.2% 0.9% 1.6% 25kt / 24h 1.7% 2.6% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 1.3% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.00 AL052025 250819 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.00 71.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.5 38.4 28.7 19.2 25.6 20.4 25.0 34.2 N F N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 66.0 69.0 71.0 74.0 71.0 59.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 26.0 18.0 12.0 24.0 24.0 15.0 2.0 N VF VF F VF VF F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 16.8% 8.4%