Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50     71.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  28.6  16.9  17.3  18.7  25.3  25.9  35.4  U  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  54.0  41.0  40.0  29.0  15.0  14.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  55.1  42.4  44.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0 102.0  95.0  62.0  54.0  86.0 158.0 163.0  N  F  F  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  13.0   9.0  14.0  20.0  22.0  15.0   6.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        8.4%        0.6%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 AL052025 250819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50     71.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  28.6  16.9  17.3  18.7  25.3  25.9  35.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  13.0   9.0  14.0  20.0  22.0  15.0   6.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.5%        3.8%