Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250819 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20     72.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  19.6  18.7  16.2  14.3  27.1  32.3  40.8  U  N  N  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  41.0  38.0  35.0  24.0  16.0  25.0  26.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  67.3  58.6  50.5  46.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0 103.0  66.0  40.0  42.0  93.0 106.0 129.0  N  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  71.0  62.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  13.0  15.0  13.0  15.0  16.0   2.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.5%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%        0.5%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.4%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 AL052025 250819 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20     72.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  19.6  18.7  16.2  14.3  27.1  32.3  40.8  N  N  N  U  U  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  71.0  62.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  13.0  15.0  13.0  15.0  16.0   2.0 -11.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%