Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250819 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.10 72.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.20 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.7 14.9 16.5 19.4 24.6 31.2 40.9 57.3 N F F N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 39.0 34.0 32.0 14.0 11.0 23.0 27.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 72.0 65.1 52.4 54.4 41.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 115.0 60.0 39.0 47.0 40.0 127.0 153.0 78.0 F N N N N F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 69.0 70.0 55.0 38.0 N N N N N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 12.0 6.0 14.0 26.0 17.0 5.0 -18.0 U U N U VU U N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.8% 1.9% 2.3% 25kt / 24h 4.8% 8.0% 6.4% 30kt / 24h 3.7% 4.9% 4.3% 35kt / 24h 1.9% 4.3% 3.1% 40kt / 24h 1.3% 4.3% 2.8% 45kt / 36h 12.8% 1.8% 7.3% 55kt / 36h 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 2.4% 0.8% 1.6% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.74 AL052025 250819 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.10 72.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.7 14.9 16.5 19.4 24.6 31.2 40.9 57.3 N U N N N N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 69.0 70.0 55.0 38.0 N N N N N N F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 12.0 6.0 14.0 26.0 17.0 5.0 -18.0 F F N F VF F N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8%