Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250820 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 72.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 82.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 17.5 16.3 16.3 26.4 35.9 46.6 61.5 F F F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 33.0 27.0 18.0 15.0 28.0 29.0 19.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 69.6 65.1 56.5 54.4 46.6 31.1 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 73.0 43.0 48.0 58.0 65.0 112.0 99.0 3.0 N N N N N F F U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 67.0 68.0 69.0 70.0 59.0 44.0 32.0 N N N N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 14.0 9.0 25.0 20.0 -1.0 -13.0 -23.0 U U U VU VU N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.2% 10.5% 11.9% 25kt / 24h 21.6% 29.3% 25.5% 30kt / 24h 15.6% 26.3% 20.9% 35kt / 24h 14.2% 26.3% 20.2% 40kt / 24h 5.8% 23.4% 14.6% 45kt / 36h 23.3% 9.1% 16.2% 55kt / 36h 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 AL052025 250820 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 72.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 17.5 16.3 16.3 26.4 35.9 46.6 61.5 N N U U N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 67.0 68.0 69.0 70.0 59.0 44.0 32.0 N N N N N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 14.0 9.0 25.0 20.0 -1.0 -13.0 -23.0 F F F VF VF N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5%