Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250820 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.30 73.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 72.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.4 17.4 15.7 22.8 30.4 41.0 52.7 71.0 N F F N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 28.0 17.0 14.0 10.0 28.0 32.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 80.0 74.6 70.1 65.7 55.5 53.5 46.2 21.7 N U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 54.0 67.0 41.0 13.0 94.0 143.0 73.0 21.0 N N N U F VF N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 69.0 69.0 70.0 68.0 52.0 38.0 34.0 N N N N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 14.0 21.0 26.0 24.0 -1.0 -11.0 -9.0 VU U VU VU VU N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.6% 8.8% 9.2% 25kt / 24h 13.6% 22.8% 18.2% 30kt / 24h 9.5% 20.4% 15.0% 35kt / 24h 9.5% 20.4% 15.0% 40kt / 24h 2.1% 16.7% 9.4% 45kt / 36h 10.1% 5.3% 7.7% 55kt / 36h 1.2% 1.5% 1.4% 55kt / 48h 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.26 AL052025 250820 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.30 73.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.4 17.4 15.7 22.8 30.4 41.0 52.7 71.0 N N U N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 69.0 69.0 70.0 68.0 52.0 38.0 34.0 N N N N N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 14.0 21.0 26.0 24.0 -1.0 -11.0 -9.0 VF F VF VF VF N U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5%