Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250820 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.60 73.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 74.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 18.6 25.2 31.1 36.7 43.1 62.4 75.8 N N N U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 18.0 14.0 15.0 24.0 34.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 69.6 65.1 56.5 54.4 54.4 37.7 16.7 -13.1 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 48.0 34.0 45.0 78.0 120.0 120.0 -4.0 0.0 N N N N F F U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 68.0 69.0 73.0 62.0 50.0 35.0 36.0 N N N N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 21.0 22.0 26.0 8.0 -8.0 -41.0 -40.0 U VU VU VU U F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.7% 7.1% 8.9% 25kt / 24h 7.2% 10.3% 8.8% 30kt / 24h 6.6% 7.4% 7.0% 35kt / 24h 6.6% 7.2% 6.9% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 5.7% 3.2% 45kt / 36h 7.9% 2.7% 5.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.96 AL052025 250820 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.60 73.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 18.6 25.2 31.1 36.7 43.1 62.4 75.8 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 68.0 69.0 73.0 62.0 50.0 35.0 36.0 N N N N N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 21.0 22.0 26.0 8.0 -8.0 -41.0 -40.0 F VF VF VF F U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8%