Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250820 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.70 73.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 143.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 23.7 29.3 30.7 39.4 52.6 71.2 94.0 N N N U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 15.0 14.0 16.0 40.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U N U U U Potential [kt] 60.1 51.5 45.5 43.5 39.8 26.1 -3.3 -37.3 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 25.0 37.0 86.0 93.0 59.0 -2.0 24.0 N U N F F N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 69.0 67.0 54.0 41.0 37.0 41.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 29.0 18.0 18.0 17.0 -1.0 -57.0 -42.0 -96.0 VU VU VU U N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.0% 9.0% 13.5% 25kt / 24h 11.7% 9.2% 10.5% 30kt / 24h 11.7% 6.3% 9.0% 35kt / 24h 11.7% 6.2% 8.9% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 4.6% 2.8% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.66 AL052025 250820 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.70 73.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 143.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 23.7 29.3 30.7 39.4 52.6 71.2 94.0 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 69.0 67.0 54.0 41.0 37.0 41.0 N N N N F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 29.0 18.0 18.0 17.0 -1.0 -57.0 -42.0 -96.0 VF VF VF F N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.0% 1.0%