Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250821 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 73.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 68.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.3 24.5 28.2 32.8 43.9 61.8 77.2 93.5 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 12.0 24.0 21.0 32.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 51.5 45.5 43.5 47.4 36.2 11.7 -18.1 -39.7 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 66.0 108.0 97.0 117.0 22.0 40.0 22.0 U N F F F U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 65.0 57.0 48.0 38.0 41.0 40.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 5.0 -4.0 -16.0 -18.0 -37.0 -50.0-135.0 U N F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.6% 2.1% 3.3% 25kt / 24h 1.8% 3.1% 2.4% 30kt / 24h 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 35kt / 24h 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 AL052025 250821 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 73.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.