Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90     71.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.2  39.6  40.8  50.7  70.0  87.4 104.5  78.2  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  28.0  27.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.4  48.5  32.7  41.2  18.0 -17.3 -35.0 -37.7  U  U VU  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  70.0 129.0 117.0  49.0  22.0  36.0  36.0  F  N  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  57.0  51.0  47.0  35.0  38.0  41.0  42.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  -7.0   7.0 -26.0 -46.0 -40.0 -97.0-107.0  U  F  N VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.4%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.00

 AL052025 250821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90     71.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.