Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.90     70.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  38.6  48.9  58.5  72.7  93.2  91.6  64.2  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  31.0  23.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.4  37.7  28.6  20.4   7.7 -32.7 -29.1 -36.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0 139.0 117.0  71.0  30.0  40.0  25.0  35.0  N VF  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  52.0  48.0  42.0  42.0  44.0  46.0  42.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0 -31.0 -41.0 -61.0-123.0-119.0-100.0  F  N VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.3%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.34

 AL052025 250821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.90     70.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.