Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.80     68.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  47.6  54.5  61.0  79.8  94.1  76.5  41.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  26.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.5  34.6  36.1  24.4 -26.5 -30.7 -35.5 -38.9  U VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0 133.0  53.0  52.0  12.0   1.0  35.0  78.0  F VF  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  50.0  46.0  41.0  44.0  45.0  44.0  48.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -39.0 -46.0 -64.0 -89.0-130.0-135.0 -47.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.1%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.46

 AL052025 250822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.80     68.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.