Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052025 250822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.90     66.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.1  49.2  56.7  65.4  87.3  85.9  60.1  30.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.4  41.1  29.4  12.7 -27.7 -23.7 -32.1 -33.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0  66.0  23.0  12.0  16.0  37.0  55.0  83.0  F  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  44.0  41.0  42.0  41.0  47.0  41.0  51.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -39.0 -56.0 -63.0 -46.0-120.0-129.0-100.0 -46.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.88

 AL052025 250822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.90     66.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.