Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250822 12UTC Storm Located at : 38.50 64.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.6 53.1 61.7 72.8 92.0 73.8 33.0 18.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 41.1 29.4 12.7 -10.4 -21.5 -28.5 -33.8 -33.6 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 15.0 33.0 12.0 43.0 55.0 91.0 70.0 N U N U N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 38.0 40.0 39.0 37.0 40.0 47.0 58.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -20.0 -53.0 -32.0 -79.0-104.0 -47.0 -29.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.70 AL052025 250822 12UTC Storm Located at : 38.50 64.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.