Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250822 18UTC Storm Located at : 39.40 61.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.50 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.9 56.3 69.3 78.6 80.1 52.8 27.5 27.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 29.4 11.7 -12.2 -15.4 -26.0 -32.7 -33.9 -34.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 25.0 -3.0 26.0 26.0 37.0 110.0 71.0 N U U U U N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 40.0 41.0 38.0 45.0 48.0 53.0 62.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -40.0 -50.0 -78.0 -85.0 -94.0 -92.0 -47.0 -27.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.30 AL052025 250822 18UTC Storm Located at : 39.40 61.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.