Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052025 250823 00UTC Storm Located at : 40.70 57.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 15.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.70 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 65.3 73.7 78.9 83.6 59.8 29.3 21.5 21.2 VU VU VU VU VU N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 9.7 -13.3 -15.9 -21.9 -31.8 -33.5 -34.4 -35.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 0.0 22.0 49.0 48.0 82.0 89.0 48.0 U U U N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 43.0 42.0 42.0 52.0 56.0 61.0 73.0 VU VU VU VU U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -78.0 -94.0-139.0-131.0 -87.0 -35.0 -54.0 -21.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.70 AL052025 250823 00UTC Storm Located at : 40.70 57.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.