Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062025 250823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60     61.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  15.9  17.7  13.8  25.2  23.4  22.8  11.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  37.0  39.0  36.0  17.0  16.0   6.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 129.3 117.9 107.4  98.0  91.0  54.7  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0 -23.0  14.0 -14.0   6.0  56.0  24.0  59.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  54.0  58.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0  14.0  16.0  18.0  27.0  34.0  26.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        5.1%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        8.0%       28.0%       18.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%       16.1%       10.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       15.3%        9.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       15.1%        7.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       23.9%       13.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%       11.8%        7.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.6%        5.3%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        3.7%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        3.3%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 AL062025 250823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60     61.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  15.9  17.7  13.8  25.2  23.4  22.8  11.9  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  54.0  58.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0  14.0  16.0  18.0  27.0  34.0  26.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%