Rapid Intensification Guidance AL062025 250824 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.20 61.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 16.8 16.4 19.4 28.3 22.1 13.9 24.1 F F F N N N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 38.0 32.0 17.0 16.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 127.0 122.3 117.9 111.5 98.0 92.7 71.7 25.5 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -13.0 27.0 -31.0 -32.0 -33.0 48.0 19.0 43.0 U U VU VU VU N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 48.0 44.0 44.0 48.0 54.0 53.0 42.0 U U VU VU U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 13.0 18.0 8.0 30.0 19.0 31.0 -3.0 U U VU U VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 1.6% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 7.9% 4.4% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 3.3% 2.0% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 2.7% 1.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.7% 1.3% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 5.2% 2.8% 55kt / 36h 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 55kt / 48h 7.1% 1.1% 4.1% 70kt / 48h 1.9% 0.7% 1.3% 65kt / 72h 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.08 AL062025 250824 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.20 61.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 16.8 16.4 19.4 28.3 22.1 13.9 24.1 U N U N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 48.0 44.0 44.0 48.0 54.0 53.0 42.0 F F VF VF F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 13.0 18.0 8.0 30.0 19.0 31.0 -3.0 F F VF F VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%